What isGambler’s Fallacy？
Synonyms:
| Chinese Terminology | English Terminology | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 赌徒错觉 | Gambler’s Fallacy | The most common Chinese translation; considered a direct synonym. |
| 蒙特卡洛谬误 | Monte Carlo Fallacy | Named after the 1913 Monte Carlo roulette incident; a specific term derived from a historical event. |
| 独立事件误解 | Misunderstanding of Independent Events | Descriptive usage emphasizing the incorrect perception of independent probability events. |
| 逆回归偏误 | Negative Recency Bias | A psychological term describing the belief that a repeated result is “due to stop.” |
| 平均化谬误 | Law of Small Numbers Misinterpretation | A flawed reasoning that small samples must conform to the Law of Large Numbers. |
| 概率补偿错觉 | Compensation Fallacy | A cognitive bias where one believes an event is “due” after not occurring for a while. |
Gambler’s Fallacy, also known as Gambler’s Illusion or Monte Carlo Fallacy, refers to the mistaken belief that in a series of random events, the probability of a result increases simply because it hasn't occurred for a while—or that the probability of a repeated result decreases in the next round.
This is a common logical fallacy, especially prevalent in situations involving probability judgment, such as gambling, lotteries, and financial investments.
Principle and Misconception
The core of the Gambler’s Fallacy is the misbelief that independent events have "memory."
For example, consider a coin toss:
If heads comes up 6 times in a row, many people believe the next flip is “due” to be tails.
In reality, each coin toss is an independent event. The probability of heads or tails on the next flip is still 50%, completely unrelated to the previous result.
This flawed reasoning stems from the human tendency to intuitively expect "probability to even out," along with a cognitive bias in understanding randomness.
Origin of the Name: The Monte Carlo Casino Incident
The term “Monte Carlo Fallacy” originates from a famous historical event:
In 1913, at the Monte Carlo Casino in Monaco, a roulette wheel landed on black 26 times in a row. During this streak, many gamblers wrongly believed that red was “due” to appear and heavily bet on red—resulting in massive losses for hundreds of players.
This incident became a classic example of the Gambler’s Fallacy and is how the term got its name.
Common Scenarios
| Scenario Type | Expression of the Gambler’s Fallacy |
|---|---|
| Casino Games | “It’s been black for several rounds — red is due next.” |
| Lottery Betting | “This number hasn’t been drawn in a long time — it’s bound to come up soon.” |
| Financial Investing | “This stock has been falling for too long — it’s due for a rebound.” |
| Sports Predictions | “This team has lost 5 games in a row — they’re due for a win.” |
These are all examples of past independent outcomes being mistakenly used as <strong data-start="
Distinction from Related Concepts
| Concept Name | Description |
|---|---|
| Gambler’s Fallacy | The belief that an outcome that hasn’t occurred for a long time is “due,” reflecting an over-expectation of averaging. |
| Hot Hand Fallacy | The belief that a winning streak will continue, reflecting an over-expectation of streaks. |
| Luck Bias | The belief that short-term outcomes carry special meaning, overemphasizing the role of “luck.” |
| Hindsight Bias | The tendency to believe, after the fact, that the outcome was inevitable—ignoring randomness and uncertainty. |
Summary
The Gambler’s Fallacy is a highly common cognitive bias, particularly evident in contexts involving probability and randomness. Whether in casinos, lottery markets, or everyday decision-making, understanding and being aware of this logical trap can help us make more rational and accurate judgments—and avoid losses caused by false expectations.